Wednesday, 14 October, 2026

The Resilience Trade: Spare Barrels, Fast Megawatts and Saudi Arabia’s Next Investment Wave

Two standout plenaries on day two of the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh put a price on the same strategic asset in different units: spare barrels in the pipeline and responsive megawatts on the grid. Together, they offered international operators and contractors a clear investment signal.

Inside Saudi

Oil Market Fundamentals Enabling Investment Decisions to Meet Global Energy Demand 2026-10-13 - Photo 001.jpg

Leading energy experts discuss oil market fundamentals, global energy demand and investment decisions during Plenary Session 6 at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh.

In Riyadh, the value of energy resilience is being measured in two currencies: barrels that can be protected and megawatts that can respond.
​At plenary session 6, the message from senior energy analysts was uncomfortable but increasingly difficult to dispute. The forecasting instruments on which the industry has relied for decades are no longer providing the clarity investors need.
Fahad Alajlan, President of KAPSARC, traced the deterioration to fragmentation since 2022, which has distorted forward curves and data reporting alike. Financial markets, he argued, are increasingly transmitting noise rather than signal.
Joseph McMonigle, President of the Global Centre for Energy Analysis, put a number on that uncertainty. Citing an International Energy Forum study conducted with S&P Global, he noted that base-case oil demand projections for 2030 across major forecasting agencies diverge by as much as seven million barrels per day.
Kurt Barrow of S&P Global and Dr Bassam Fattouh of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies reinforced the wider concern from different points in the value chain: the shock of 2022 travelled its full length, exposing vulnerabilities that the industry can no longer afford to ignore.
Seven million barrels per day is a country-sized volume of uncertainty. It sits within the range of reasonable disagreement over what the world will consume by 2030.
For anyone modelling an upstream investment or midstream asset, a forecasting gap of that magnitude weakens the case for allocating capital on a single demand outlook.
The answer emerging from the discussion was not necessarily a better forecast.
It was a different way of valuing the asset.
Back the barrels that are protected
McMonigle offered perhaps the sharpest investment principle of the session: evaluate an asset not only by the barrels it produces, but by the barrels it protects. He pointed to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the additional capacity under consideration. The significance extends beyond throughput. Infrastructure capable of preserving market access, maintaining flows and offering alternative routes has a value that conventional volume-based models can underestimate.
There is already a valuation precedent. KAPSARC research on OPEC spare production capacity, particularly Saudi Arabia's contribution, has been cited at $500 billion in economic value to the global economy through improved market resilience.
Spare capacity is not idle capital. It is an insurance policy the rest of the world consumes without paying the premium. For international contractors attending the plenary, that reframing has immediate commercial implications.
The opportunity is not confined to companies extracting more crude. It extends to Saudi Aramco's optimisation programmes; midstream contractors developing and twinning trunk lines and pump stations towards the Red Sea; and the storage, terminal and trading operations capable of monetising optionality rather than simply volume.
The common denominator is infrastructure that keeps energy moving when normal assumptions fail.
Alajlan's closing counsel to investors, as reported from the session floor, was notably direct: follow what Saudi Arabia is doing with its own capital.
Fifteen megawatts, ten times a second
Earlier in the day, plenary session 5, Energy and AI as Co-Enablers, moderated by Yehia Khoja, General Director of AI and Business Development at the Ministry of Energy, had applied remarkably similar logic to electricity.
If the oil-market discussion was about protecting barrels, the AI discussion was about protecting grid stability.
Engineer Mazin Albahkali, Chief Executive Officer of the Principal Buyer, supplied a number that should anchor any serious regional data-centre investment thesis: a power system of roughly 105 gigawatts, with another 53 gigawatts of generation capacity under construction.
That is equivalent to adding approximately half the existing system again.
Yet the challenge is not simply the volume of additional electricity required. It is the behaviour of the demand.
Albahkali described a June visit to US data centres, where he observed a 45-megawatt AI facility experience load swings of roughly 15 megawatts, approximately 30 per cent of its total load, as frequently as ten times a second as GPUs started and stopped in unison.
Conventional cloud computing presents a substantial but relatively stable load. AI computing is different. Its rapid fluctuations introduce operational stresses that conventional demand planning was not designed to accommodate.
The response requires a generation and storage mix capable of absorbing those shocks: dispatchable gas, renewable energy and batteries with the response speed to smooth rapid changes in load.
Khoja captured the reversal neatly. Batteries once protected customers from the grid. Now, increasingly, they must protect the grid from the customer.
Engineer Ibrahim Al-Khunaizan, Executive Vice President for Distribution and Customer Service at Saudi Energy, added an operational detail that international data-centre developers risk overlooking.
Not every data centre connects at transmission level.
More than 150 megawatts of data-centre demand is already being served through the distribution network, while one city alone has more than twenty data centres.
His challenge is a combination of speed, load profile and certainty.
AI facilities can be developed in under eighteen months. Grid infrastructure typically takes longer. Meanwhile, not every application for a connection becomes a realised project.
For utilities and developers, the issue is therefore more complex than providing additional capacity. It involves deciding how much infrastructure to build, where to position it and how to maintain reliability when both customer demand and project delivery schedules are changing.
​
The resilience ledger: four figures to watch

Capacity or commitment

Figure cited

Prinicipal institution

Spare crude production capacity

$500 billion in estimated global economic value, as cited from KAPSARC research

​OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia

Generation capacity under construction

53 GW against an existing system of approximately 105 GW

Principal Buyer

Data-centre demand on distribution networks

More than 150 MW served; over 20 facilities in one city

Saudi Energy

National ICT framework agreements

More than SAR 60 billion across seven agreements

Digital Government Authority

​

Session 5.jpeg

Industry leaders explore the growing relationship between energy and artificial intelligence, focusing on electricity demand, grid resilience and digital transformation during Plenary Session 5 at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh.

The pilot proves the technology. Scaling proves the business model.

Dr Margarete Schramboeck, board member of Aramco Digital and former Austrian Minister for Economy and Digital Affairs, offered a useful distinction between experimentation and commercial deployment.

A pilot proves that the technology works. Scaling proves that the business model works.

Her starting point was deliberately practical: collect the data at the edge, where the machine operates, before attempting to build increasingly sophisticated applications on top of it.

Her assessment of Saudi Arabia's existing industrial data advantage was equally direct.

Aramco's MetaBrain contains ninety years of operational knowledge. Schramboeck said she had seen nothing comparable elsewhere in the world.

She also highlighted the demographic advantage. Austria's average age, she noted, is between 45 and 48, against 26 in Saudi Arabia.

That combination of accumulated industrial knowledge and a relatively young population provides the backdrop for the Kingdom's ambitions to scale AI beyond isolated pilots.

Al-Khunaizan supplied the operational evidence.

Demand forecasting accuracy has improved from 95 to 98 per cent. Drone and handset imagery is feeding a defect-detection model operating at 90 per cent accuracy, now being scaled across the distribution network.

Twelve million smart meters are generating increasingly granular consumption data, including appliance-level insights. Customers accessed that information through the utility's application four million times in September alone.

These are not theoretical AI use cases. They are applications already delivering measurable improvements in forecasting, inspection and customer engagement.

Engineer Rami Yassine of Halliburton, a company with nearly eight decades of experience in the Kingdom, described a parallel transformation in drilling.

AI is compressing the planning-to-execution cycle in an industry that once called exploration wildcatting precisely because it involved a considerable degree of intelligent guesswork.

The commercial distinction matters. Demonstrating that an algorithm works is only the beginning. Proving that it can deliver repeatable value across a large industrial operating base is where technology starts to become an investment proposition.

SAR 60 billion of procurement already on the page

Engineer Anas Saleh Al-Raimi, Deputy Governor for the Technology and Solutions Sector at the Digital Government Authority (DGA), brought the discussion back to the procurement pipeline.

The DGA's 2025 Government ICT Spending Report recorded SAR 31.9 billion in expenditure, with cloud spending increasing 42 per cent and expenditure on AI and emerging technologies rising 20 per cent.

That investment generated more than SAR 9.5 billion in direct economic value added.

Beyond annual expenditure, seven active national framework agreements cover more than SAR 60 billion in spending commitments or procurement scope, according to the figures presented at the Congress.

They include approximately 400 AI services, with plans to expand the offering to 1,400 by the end of the year.

Saudi Arabia also recorded one of the highest scores in the World Bank's 2025 GovTech Maturity Index, a performance the Kingdom's authorities have described as placing it second globally.

An AI-first government policy and a responsible AI adoption framework, developed with the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA), are under consultation ahead of planned publication before year-end.

Al-Raimi's message on AI sovereignty was less about excluding international providers than shaping the terms of their participation.

Localise with global providers and build in Saudi Arabia.

That is an important distinction for international technology companies considering the market. Sovereignty, in this formulation, is compatible with foreign participation, provided the capabilities, partnerships and delivery infrastructure are established locally.

For suppliers, the DGA's framework agreements give that message an identifiable commercial route to market.

Reporting from inside the hall

Inside Saudi is covering the full 25th WPC Energy Congress from the floor, with access to plenaries, panels and interviews with key decision-makers throughout the week.

Two days in, the investment read-across for incoming operators is becoming clear.

Start with market access. Assess Regional Headquarters licensing requirements for relevant government procurement, establish the appropriate local presence and begin vendor prequalification well before a tender appears.

For energy and infrastructure contractors, that means understanding Saudi Aramco's vendor registration and qualification processes, positioning for midstream expansion and aligning capabilities with the Principal Buyer's generation and system requirements.

For technology providers, it means examining the DGA's national framework agreements, identifying routes into government procurement and developing the local partnerships needed to move from pilot projects to delivery at scale.

The two plenaries approached the energy system from different directions, but arrived at the same commercial conclusion.

Oil markets need spare capacity and alternative routes to withstand disruption. Electricity networks need dispatchable supply, storage and increasingly intelligent infrastructure to manage a new generation of volatile demand.

Both require capital committed in advance of the moment it is needed.

Riyadh's investment signal is not simply about producing more energy. It is about protecting the capacity to deliver it.

That is where the next wave of opportunities is forming: in the pipeline, on the grid and across the digital systems connecting them.

Resilience capacity is bought long before the disruption arrives.

So are the vendor relationships and registrations that make supplying it possible.

​

Saudi Arabia
WPC Energy Congress 2026
Oil Market Fundamentals
Artificial Intelligence
Energy Infrastructure
Vision 2030

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